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Pool Veterans Dominate Week 4 and Q1 Leaderboards as Chiefs Topple Broncos on Monday Night

The Denver Broncos came close to a Monday night upset of the Kansas City Chiefs that would have dramatically altered the leaderboard of the 2018 Monday Night Ticket Score (MNTS), but ultimately, the shakeup did not happen and two veteran SecondTicket fans tied for the best Week 4 prediction.

The weekly victory goes to 10th year fan theABE, whose 27-24 prediction of the Chiefs' 27-23 win was submitted three days before 11th year fan Rozman posted the same prediction. theABE wins the $5 Mega credit, although his 57.2 point total is not likely to lock down a $10,000 berth.

It's the 2nd career weekly win for theABE. He and Rozman are among the top 14 fans all time in terms of weeks played and among the top 21 in total pool points. To see the all-time pool leaderboard and statistics, click the All-Time link below.

Related Leaderboards: Week 4   Season   Week-By-Week   All-Time   How Credits Work

Q1 Goes to Another Long Time Fan
10th year fan nina secured her 3rd quarterly victory, the $18.80 Mega credit, and the first guaranteed $10,000 berth. She joins ckmendels and julesschneider as the only three fans with three quarterly victories. In fact, only three others - Dread Pirate Dave, diegobub and chrishill_8 - even have two quarterly victories.

But Week 4 almost ended much differently, and if it had, Q1 would have too. With Denver leading 23-20 prior to Kansas City's game winning drive, fan dmgerstein's 21-20 upset prediction was poised to score him a 205 point night. With only 20% of fans having picked the Broncos, the 5x upset multiplier would have amplified his 41 basic points to 205 - and that would have secured him the Q1 victory and vaulted him into the top 5 of the 2018 Mega Pool.

Fans won a total of $67 in ticket credits with average score predictions of Kansas City 29.8, Denver 23.2. That 6.6 point gap exceeded the game's final 3.5 point spread.

How Does it Compare to Other Games, and Actual NFL Score Frequencies
This was the third consecutive game that's been relatively easy to predict, historically, in the 12 year history of the pool based on combined median (4.0) and average (5.1) prediction differentials. Only 9% of games have had more likely outcomes. 27 is the 4th most common score in the NFL since 2006, and 23 is 7th most common. Yet, despite those two common scores, this was only the 44th 27-23 game in NFL history, according to this cool site called Scorigami.

For these and similar statistics and analysis, follow @themegapool on Twitter.

Q2 begins next week with every fan at zero quarterly points, so make your Week 5 prediction now!